As I write this, S&P 500 futures are down 0.56% following the PPI release and renewed US–Iran tensions. WTI crude is up around 4%, approaching $100 a barrel again for the first time since May. There’s still no clear path out of the conflict, and it feels like investors are getting nervous. Understandably.

Trading hasn’t been easy this year. If anything, it’s been a reminder that you can get the bigger picture right and still have a pretty rough time making money from it.

On one side, we have several risks that deserve attention.

The yen carry trade unwind. My read is that it has been relatively orderly so far, without the broader disruption people feared. But it’s something I’m watching. Orderly doesn’t mean finished.

The Iran war and rising costs. Oil and diesel are the obvious ones. Fertilizer supply and the potential knock-on effects on agricultural prices worry me too. If diesel stays expensive for long enough, the pressure can spread through transport, manufacturing and eventually the prices consumers pay.

Private credit. The argument you hear is that some of the risky lending that used to sit inside banks has migrated into less transparent parts of the financial system. Higher rates expose weak borrowers, and the concern is that individual problems could eventually become connected.

I don’t know whether that becomes a broader default cycle. I’m not treating private credit as “2008 all over again.” But I’m not comfortable dismissing it either.

Then, on the other side, we have AI.

Everyone knows the argument by now. But knowing it doesn’t mean we’ve understood its scale.

I believe AI could be more transformative than the internet. That’s a big claim, and it’s my conviction rather than something I can prove today. But it’s the reason I remain constructive on the longer-term picture.

I also think that without the Iran war, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would be materially higher. We can’t know that counterfactual, but that’s my view.

This rally has changed

In 2024, we went through what felt to me like the most speculative phase of the AI trade.

I remember watching speculative shitcos with barely any revenue flying. Having the right story could be enough. Many of those names have since come back down to earth.

From summer 2025 through April this year, the semiconductor rally felt different. There was still excitement, obviously, but there were also earnings behind it. In a lot of cases, earnings growth gave the move something real to stand on.

That doesn’t mean every semiconductor stock is cheap. It means I don’t think we can dismiss the whole move as hype.

At the same time, long semis and short software seemed to become one of the defining trades, particularly among the pod shops.

Software was dead. AI was going to destroy it. Nobody wanted to own it.

Until some earnings started showing more resilience than the narrative suggested, and parts of the sector started finding a floor.

For me, that captured something about this year: price creates narratives.

When a sector falls, we become very good at explaining why it deserves to fall forever. When it starts recovering, suddenly we discover the reasons it might survive.

I’m not immune to this. Nobody is. But I try to notice when a changing price is doing more work than changing fundamentals.

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So where does that leave us?

Somewhere uncomfortable.

We have what I think could be an enormous, lasting investment cycle driven by AI. Alongside it, we have a conflict that can damage growth, push inflation higher and make life harder for the Fed.

Both can be true. AI can be transformational while the stocks attached to it have a terrible few months.

I’m not going to tell you exactly how this plays out. I don’t know. And anyone pretending to know probably deserves a bit more scrutiny.

But I do have a working theory.

I think the costs of a prolonged war eventually create pressure for some kind of resolution. My base case is that both the US and Iran have reasons to find a way out.

The midterms complicate that. One possibility I consider is that Iran sees political leverage in keeping pressure on Trump ahead of the election. The other side of that argument is that a president facing less immediate electoral pressure afterward could become less predictable.

That is speculation about incentives, not knowledge of what either government is thinking. I could be wrong about their priorities, their willingness to compromise, or their ability to reach an agreement.

And even if both sides would benefit from an exit, it doesn’t mean they manage to find one.

Still, my base case is that we get enough de-escalation for the market to put more weight back on earnings and the AI investment cycle.

The more damaging scenario is a prolonged conflict: expensive energy feeds into the wider economy, inflation becomes harder to contain, and the Fed responds with further tightening.

That would put real pressure on my bullish view. Strong technology doesn’t make valuations or financing costs irrelevant.

I put less weight on that scenario today. But the incentives I see are a reason for my view, not a guarantee that it works.

Today’s PPI fits that uncomfortable picture. Headline producer prices rose 0.4% in August, taking the annual rate to 5.4%. Energy drove much of the increase in goods prices. But core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected. So there’s something for both sides here: renewed energy pressure for the bears, a softer underlying monthly reading for the bulls. BLS, Trading Economics.

For me, this doesn’t change the thesis much. It reinforces why the duration of the energy shock matters. If it fades, there’s more room for earnings and AI to drive the conversation again. If it persists, the question becomes how much businesses can absorb before passing costs on or taking a hit to margins. One softer core number helps, but it isn’t enough to get comfortable.

Where I stand

I’m leaning bullish, with the expectation that the path could be ugly.

Between now and the midterms, I think we could have sharp moves in both directions. My working target remains 8,000 on the S&P 500, although I’m much less confident about the timing than the direction.

I also sense a lot of fear. That doesn’t prove investors are underpositioned. You can sound worried and still be fully invested. But if cautious sentiment is backed by cautious positioning, a better outcome could force people to chase.

The things that would make me reconsider are fairly straightforward: a conflict that keeps escalating, inflation spreading well beyond energy, or AI earnings and spending failing to support expectations.

I want to keep testing those things, rather than find a new excuse to stay bullish every week.

For now, I think the longer-term opportunity wins out. We may be watching one of the biggest technological shifts of our lives, and I don’t want to lose sight of that every time the market gets uncomfortable.

But I don’t want to confuse conviction with certainty either.

That’s where my head is right now.

Arctic

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I’m calling for the TOP in GOLD.

First of all, this is not financial advice and I am probably wrong. These are just my views at the moment, and they could change tomorrow if new events come into play.

That said, let’s dig in.

Why do I think we are close to the TOP in GOLD?
Let me start with the main reasons gold h…

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• “Stocks are expensive, we’re in a bubble.”

• “Trump is doing crazy, even unconstitutional things.”

• “Inflation is ticking up again.”

Everything sounds bearish… yet the market keeps climbing.

My view

We’ve just lived through one of the most hated rallies in recent memory. Since the April lows, the market stag…

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• Revenues: 0% growth

• Company Losing market share

• Company Burning a ton of cash

• Company at a -60% Drawdown

• Yet, there is one big catalyst which people is hating

• Positioning is the most bearish ever

Despite all the negativity, I’m targeting a 2× to 8× return on this options bet.

Let’s dive in.

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• Valuation: Trades at 13.32x PE.

• Balance Sheet: SAR 715M in NCAV.

• Cashflows: Strong FCF generation.

• Potential: Long term high quality compounder.

• Ideal For: Open-minded, aggressive value investors.

• Narrative: Riding the Vision 2030 wave.

While value investing can be found in a wide array of forms, in this write-up I come back to the traditional PE view of value investing.

I think I’ve found a great company, at a great valuation, with a great narrative for the future. This combination, I’m sure, will excite a lot of you.

While it’s quite a straightforward thesis, it’s very compelling, and there’s a real chance for Saudi companies to become a strong thematic in the coming years, as Vision 2030 government spending starts flowing into corporate profits.

It’s not a risk-free investment, but the risk-reward, in my view, is quite compelling.

I was looking for something different, and I’ve found it.

Hope you all like it.

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In today’s thesis you will find:

• Uncorrelated Trade Idea for 2025

• Potential: 2x to 3x in 2025

• Basket of the Highest Quality Companies

• Clear Catalyst to Unfold This Year

Before proceeding, If you’re thinking about signing up for Seeking Alpha, you can do it through this link: Seeking Alpha. It helps me keep writing content like this. Thank you for the support!

Seeking Alpha Offer

Before diving into today’s thesis, I want to share an update on my Q1 2025 performance and portfolio positioning.

Q1 2025 Portfolio Update

As of March 18, my portfolio is up 11.2% in 2025, and I’m very proud of this performance, especially following an exceptional 2024. The gains have primarily come from my TLT call options, which I bought when TLT was around $87, and a few S&P put options, which I purchased when the index was at all-time highs as an insurance. At that time, I thought that the economy and market perspectives were weak at those valuations. After one of the fastest declines in the S&P’s history, I took profits on the put options, locking in gains while keeping my portfolio positioned for further opportunities.

Currently, my TLT call options make up approximately 45% of my portfolio, while the other half consists of a highly diversified basket of stocks. My top stock positions are:

• Innoviz Technologies: This week, I bought back into the stock as it’s trading at an extremely attractive valuation following a major pullback. My average price is $0.68.

• nLIGHT: One of my latest investment theses. The stock has held up well during the recent market pullback. My average price is $11.

• Talkspace: A long-term holding that I remain confident in for a strong 2025. Average purchasing price of 1.78$.

• Aside from these three stocks, I also hold 16 other companies in my portfolio.

I'm excited about how my portfolio is coming together and will continue to monitor opportunities as they arise. Right now, I believe it's well-diversified, with my TLT position acting as a hedge against downturns while my stock picks provide exposure to the upside of economic growth. Right now, I’m holding more stocks than ever, aiming for diversification not just across companies, but also across industries as uncertainty unfolds.

What excites me most is that TLT isn’t just a defensive play. It has its own bullish thesis. This means that, in my view, the entire portfolio is positioned to push higher in the mid-term, balancing both protection and upside potential.

Let’s dive in today’s thesis.

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While I am, and will always be, a micro-investor focused on fundamentally sound small-cap companies, this idea takes a completely different perspective from what you are used to.

As an investor, flexibility is one of the most valuable traits you can develop. We are currently in a challenging market environment:

• Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and their potential impact on the U.S. economy.

• Market valuations are high, limiting upside potential in U.S. stocks.

Given this perspective, I am looking for alternative opportunities, as I don’t see much upside in U.S. equities, nor in other geographies. Yes, Europe’s valuations are much lower than those in the U.S., but several structural headwinds make the investment landscape less attractive:

• A slowing European economy and lack of innovation compared to other regions.

• Uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies and their potential negative impact on Europe’s economic ecosystem.

For these reasons, I don’t expect Europe to thrive in the near term. Instead, I find Japan particularly interesting, as growth appears to be returning after a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation. While I may cover some Japanese companies in future articles, this time, my focus is on other types of assets.

This February article is intended to offer a fresh perspective on the markets and encourage investors to explore opportunities beyond traditional asset classes, and to be clear, I’m not referring to crypto.

Let’s dive in.

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With markets running hot recently, many suggest that opportunities have dried up. However, I’ve identified what I believe to be a significant opportunity for investors. This investment checks all the boxes for a great opportunity:

1. Sustainable Growth

2. Reasonable Valuation

3. An exciting narrative that will capture investor interest.

Currently, most investors overlook this company, viewing it as a "boring commercial laser company." What they fail to see is its high-growth potential in Aerospace and Defense technology. But they won’t miss it for long.

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• Achieving a 25x Return through Options

• Thought Process Behind the Trade

• Blending Value Investing Fundamentals with thematic investing

First and foremost, I want to share the reason behind writing this article:

To inspire young and small value investors to carve out their own unique path in investing. 

There are countless approaches to…

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Over recent years, investments in technology and innovative stocks have been criticized by traditional value investors. In my view, this perspective is misguided.

Innovation is what creates wealth for society and expands opportunities for everyone. This is an indisputable truth.

During the last century, the industrial revolution set the stage for unprecedented progress, and since then innovation has continually propelled our societies forward in ways once unimaginable. It creates excitement, drives humanity ahead, and enriches our shared experience. Without it, not only would value investors suffer, but entire societies would struggle. Hunger and conflict could return as resources become increasingly scarce for a rapidly growing population.

That said, not every valuation is justified simply by the promise of innovation. I still consider myself a value investor, and proper valuation remains essential when analyzing any stock. Yet, if you combine a fair valuation with forward-thinking technology, genuine innovation, robust growth, and positive investor sentiment, I believe you can achieve the greatest rewards.

Let’s now embark in the deep dive.

I hope you find it inspiring, and remember:

True innovation is what will ultimately sustain and uplift us all.

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• Growth: 5-year Revenue CAGR of 22%

• Profitability: Profitable and cash-flow positive

• Investor Sentiment: Depressed under Trump victory.

• Valuation: 3.6x fordward P/FCF

• Potential: 50% CAGR through 2027.

• Tailwinds: Rising energy demand driven by AI growth.

• Challenges: Revenue drop in 2024. Poised for rapid recovery.

What fascinates me most about investing is the chance to uncover the hidden mechanisms driving the world forward. And right now, AI stands as the single most transformative force shaping the society we live in. Its potential is undeniable, but as a value investor, I’ve found that most AI-related stocks are overpriced, leaving few opportunities for long-term gains.

In this article, I’ll introduce you to a groundbreaking investment idea, a company uniquely positioned to thrive in AI’s surging energy demands. It’s a gem that balances future-proof potential with a compelling valuation that even value investors can appreciate.

Through this deep dive, I’ve uncovered a fascinating connection between AI’s growth and its ripple effects on the energy sector, and I’m confident you’ll gain valuable insights into an overlooked opportunity poised for significant returns. Join me as we explore this transformative moment and discover the potential it holds.

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• Put Option Macro play: A hedge with 3-4x potential

• Portfolio breakdown: An harmonically planned portfolio designed to navigate any market environment

• 2.5-year CAGR of 20.43%: How I’m working towards my 25% target.

• Actionable insights on high-potential investments and portfolio management tips.

Dear readers,

As I sit here reflecting on the journey of my portfolio, I realise that an investment portfolio is much like a living, breathing entity. It grows, adapts, and evolves. It tells a story, one that’s carefully written with each decision, each stock, each theme. And now, I’m excited to share the first chapter of this story with you, my valued subscribers, as part of my new quarterly portfolio updates.

But before we dive in, let me clarify: this is not financial advice. It’s simply a glimpse into my world, my thoughts on the markets, and what I’m doing with my own money. Please treat this as my personal view, not advice.

Why Portfolio Updates?

I've come to realise that a portfolio is like a well-prepared dish, a carefully crafted recipe that requires balance, attention, and intentionality. Every component plays a role, and each has a purpose. I’m happy to say that, after years of refining, I now see my portfolio as a well-told story, where each piece contributes to the whole.

Let’s begin with the update.

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I hope this update finds you well. A few weeks ago, RA International Group released its H1 2024 results along with details of several new contract awards. In this short article, I will provide an overview of these key developments.

Before we begin, if you haven't yet reviewed the company's investment thesis, please refer to this article:

Before proceeding, If you’re thinking about signing up for Seeking Alpha, you can do it through this link: Seeking Alpha. It helps me keep writing content like this. Thank you for the support!

Seeking Alpha Offer

Let’s dive into the H1 2024 results.

Revenues have remained stable throughout the year. The company has successfully retained its existing clients and is actively working to strengthen relationships with governments and organisations to secure new contracts. They are currently pursuing several open bids, focusing on expanding existing agreements and developing opportunities with new clients. Additionally, their first project for the U.S. Navy has been completed, and further contracts from the U.S. Navy are anticipated in the near future.

The key takeaway from these results is the decline in the profit margin, which fell to 8.2%, down from 17.6% in H2 2023 and 11.8% in H1 2023. While this is not an encouraging development, in my view, it is not alarmingly negative. It's important to note that RA International typically experiences weaker performance in the first half of the year due to seasonality. This trend was also evident in 2023, where H2 profit margins were significantly higher than H1. However, it’s true that this year’s H1 margin is lower than the previous year’s H1.

Up until 2023, RA International was navigating the significant challenges posed by the Mozambique incident, which had a considerable impact on the company. In my opinion, this year marks a return to normal operations, allowing the company to refocus on strengthening relationships, securing new contracts, and, most importantly, investing in its own growth.

If you examine the return on capital employed (ROCE) from before the Mozambique incident, the figures were notably strong. The image below highlights the company’s impressive ROCE during that period.

ROCE is a crucial metric for evaluating how efficiently a company generates returns from its capital investments. A ROCE of 20% indicates that for every $100 of capital employed (including both debt and equity), the company produces $20 in operating profit before interest and taxes. Generally, the higher the ROCE, the more effectively a company can reinvest its profits to fuel further growth in its operating earnings.

In my opinion, this half-year period highlights RA International’s substantial investment in its growth. While this has led to a short-term dip in profitability, I believe it will fuel stronger returns in the medium term. Given the company's strong ROCE before the Mozambique incident, I’m confident in RA International's current strategy of reinvesting capital to drive future profits, after all, this is a fundamental approach for most successful companies.

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It's often said that investors should be emotionless, but I believe that's FALSE.

I’m sharing this id…

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• Talking to Fathom’s Founder

  • Main competitor eXp World Holdings

  • New Revenue share models

  • EBITDA break even

• Update on Fathom’s Q2 Results.

If you haven't had a chance to read the Fathom thesis yet, start by visiting this link:

For those considering subscribing, this update on the Fathom thesis, which includes insights from my conversation with Fathom’s founder, is part of the paid subscription package.

However, the real value of the subscription comes from the monthly deep dives, with the next one scheduled to be released in just a few days. Don’t miss out, and upgrade your subscription now.

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Dear Readers,

I am writing this free article to share my insights on the current market situation and to help you feel more understood and informed.

My portfolio has decreased by approximately 4.6% since the beginning of August. Last Friday was particularly negative for the stock market, and today the downward trend has continued. European indexes have de…

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The Howard Hughes spinoff has garnered significant attention from value investors, particularly due to the involvement of Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, who has been actively backstopping the rights offering.

Joel Greenblatt, in his book You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, emphasizes the importance of rights offerings in spinoff situations. He advises, "Any time you read about a spin-off being accomplished through a rights offering, stop whatever you’re doing and take a look."

This scenario applies directly to the Seaport spin-off, making it a compelling opportunity for further analysis and investment consideration.

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