In today’s thesis you will find:
Uncorrelated Trade Idea for 2025
Potential: 2x to 3x in 2025
Basket of the Highest Quality Companies
Clear Catalyst to Unfold This Year
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Before diving into today’s thesis, I want to share an update on my Q1 2025 performance and portfolio positioning.
Q1 2025 Portfolio Update
As of March 18, my portfolio is up 11.2% in 2025, and I’m very proud of this performance, especially following an exceptional 2024. The gains have primarily come from my TLT call options, which I bought when TLT was around $87, and a few S&P put options, which I purchased when the index was at all-time highs as an insurance. At that time, I thought that the economy and market perspectives were weak at those valuations. After one of the fastest declines in the S&P’s history, I took profits on the put options, locking in gains while keeping my portfolio positioned for further opportunities.
Currently, my TLT call options make up approximately 45% of my portfolio, while the other half consists of a highly diversified basket of stocks. My top stock positions are:
Innoviz Technologies: This week, I bought back into the stock as it’s trading at an extremely attractive valuation following a major pullback. My average price is $0.68.
nLIGHT: One of my latest investment theses. The stock has held up well during the recent market pullback. My average price is $11.
Talkspace: A long-term holding that I remain confident in for a strong 2025. Average purchasing price of 1.78$.
Aside from these three stocks, I also hold 16 other companies in my portfolio.
I'm excited about how my portfolio is coming together and will continue to monitor opportunities as they arise. Right now, I believe it's well-diversified, with my TLT position acting as a hedge against downturns while my stock picks provide exposure to the upside of economic growth. Right now, I’m holding more stocks than ever, aiming for diversification not just across companies, but also across industries as uncertainty unfolds.
What excites me most is that TLT isn’t just a defensive play. It has its own bullish thesis. This means that, in my view, the entire portfolio is positioned to push higher in the mid-term, balancing both protection and upside potential.
Let’s dive in today’s thesis.