Once again, I’m here with a bold macro call.
I’m calling for the TOP in GOLD.First of all, this is not financial advice and I am probably wrong. These are just my views at the moment, and they could change tomorrow if new events come into play.
That said, let’s dig in.
Why do I think we are close to the TOP in GOLD?
Let me start with the main reasons gold has been in a bull market since November 2022:
The narrative of high, uncontrolled inflation
Foreign central banks shifting away from the USD and buying gold
Concerns over US debt sustainability
Global uncertainty: Ukraine, Gaza, Red Sea
More recently, Trump-related uncertainty
Why these reasons are losing strength:
Yes, the US will likely run “hot” inflation, around 3%. But I don’t see this turning into uncontrolled inflation. Why? Because several deflationary forces are at work. The most underrated: productivity gains from AI, which will offset some inflationary pressure. Add to that the structural decline in population growth.
At the same time, there will be growth. And growth is bad for gold—it makes equities look more attractive. Mild inflation plus growth is the perfect combination for equities, and if equities keep rising, relative interest in gold will naturally decline.
On US debt sustainability:
Inflation actually helps here. A controlled 3% rate reduces the real debt burden without severely damaging the economy. As investors recognize this, fear over US debt should ease.
Yes, yields are going up, but in my view, this steepening reflects awareness of future growth and sustained 3% inflation. There is nothing to worry about at the moment from rising yields. The bond market is not broken, and the US debt problem can still be managed—just as it has been in the past.
On top of that, if the Fed lowers rates from today’s restrictive stance to a more neutral level, government borrowing costs will fall, easing issuance pressure. Combined with growth, this is the right recipe for managing US debt. I think Bessent is handling this well, and unless something changes, concerns will continue to fade on this front.
Global uncertainty is also shifting:
Meetings between Putin and Trump reduce uncertainty. Russia is on the verge of collapse, and a deal is inevitable—one both sides can sell as a “victory.” Since the US strike on Iran, that front has quieted, and Gaza remains, sadly, a tragic but familiar conflict that no longer shakes global markets. Disruptions in the Red Sea have also eased after Trump’s airstrikes on Yemen.
And in Europe:
EU leaders are bending to Trump’s demands rather than opposing him. Just weeks ago, they met in the White House to discuss Ukraine. Their earlier line—that they would never negotiate with Putin or give up Ukrainian territory—is no longer clear. To me, this shift shows Europe’s weakened position and reinforces that the US remains the undisputed leader of the West. The tragedy is that Europe refused a deal two years ago, endured massive losses in Ukraine, and now may end up with essentially the same outcome. That narrative of the world moving away from US leadership looks increasingly broken.
On tariffs:
The uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs has already passed. They’re here, and it’s not the end of the world. Companies will adjust—some will win, some will lose—but the overall economy remains strong.
In my last paid article, I discussed one company positioned to benefit from tariffs and US reshoring efforts. You can find that analysis here.
#12 Asymmetric Options Trade: Betting on a 0% Growth, Cash-Burning Laggard
This will probably be my most unappealing write-up, but this is why it is so appealing to me:
Last but not least, let’s look at positioning.
Although there are still some reasons to stay bullish on gold, speculators are heavily long, while commercials are the most short they’ve been in quite some time. This isn’t a perfect indicator on its own, but it does give us a sense of the current positioning. If most of the money is already long, who’s left to keep buying?
Below is the COT data from TradingView that illustrates this.
As shown in the chart above, commercials are at their most bearish levels since 2021, while speculators are the most bullish they’ve been since the 2020 peak.
Conclusion
Putting it all together, the drivers that fueled gold’s rally—fear of runaway inflation, unsustainable US debt, and heightened global uncertainty—are losing momentum. Inflation looks contained around 3%, growth is coming back, and equities are becoming more attractive relative to gold. On the debt front, higher yields reflect stronger growth expectations, not a broken bond market, and the US has managed similar challenges before. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are shifting toward resolution rather than escalation. Finally, positioning shows speculators are crowded on the long side, while commercials are heavily short—a classic sign that we may be nearing exhaustion.
In my view, these factors suggest we are close to the top in gold.
I don’t have any gold trades open; I’m just sharing this for fun.