The Arctic Letter
Markets. Sentiment. What comes next.
I’m Arctic. Every week, I write about what’s happening in markets, how I’m interpreting it, and where I see opportunities—or reasons to be cautious.
My interest is in the gap between what’s changing and what investors already expect. A great business can be a disappointing investment at the wrong price. An uncomfortable trade can become interesting when expectations are low enough. Understanding the prevailing narrative matters, but so does knowing what could break it.
The Arctic Letter is where I work through those questions and share my conclusions, doubts and changing views.
What you’ll find here
Paid subscribers receive a weekly letter covering the developments shaping my market outlook: sentiment, emerging themes, company news and trades worth investigating.
When an individual company deserves a closer look, I’ll write about it. When the bigger picture matters more, that’s where the letter will focus. Alongside an idea, I’ll explain the risks, the assumptions behind it and what would change my mind.
Paid subscriptions also include the full archive and access to subscriber discussions. Free subscribers receive selected letters and occasional public commentary.
From Antarctic Circle Capital to The Arctic Letter
This publication began as Antarctic Circle Capital, focused on individual stock deep dives, small caps and special situations.
Over time, I realized that a fixed schedule of company reports wasn’t how I wanted to write. I wanted more room to follow developments as they happened, connect ideas across markets and discuss how my thinking was evolving.
The Arctic Letter reflects that shift. The research remains part of the process, with a broader, more personal weekly format.
The previous articles remain in the archive. They reflect my views at their publication dates and shouldn’t be assumed to represent my current positions or outlook.
How I approach this
I aim to make my reasoning clear enough for you to question it. I’ll distinguish conviction from speculation, acknowledge uncertainty and explain meaningful changes in my views.
I may hold positions in investments discussed here; relevant positions and conflicts will be disclosed in the corresponding articles. Nothing here is a promise of returns or personalized investment advice.
If you enjoy thinking about what markets believe, what they might be missing and what could happen next, welcome.
— Arctic
